By Earl Bousquet
In a previous column I offered facts and figures to support my still-hardly-held argument that as relates to the 11 member-states of the United Nations that still recognize Taiwan, the future of such ties is simply unsustainable -even if only measured by the rate of loss of allies in the last eight years under previous President Tsai Ing-wen.
According to Taiwan’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, the new Foreign Affairs Minister, Lin Chia-lung visited Saint Vincent & The Grenadines on October 27 to celebrate its 45th independence anniversary and thereafter moved up the island chain to Saint Lucia and Saint Kitts and Nevis and then to Belize (in Central America).
As per usual, never mind Taiwan not being a sovereign nation and China’s opposition to Lai’s propensity to make public statements that ignore the One China policy and the 1992 Consensus agreed to by the previous Taiwan administrations, Taipei continues pretending the island is an independent nation, yet anxious to secede from the mainland.
Never mind the PRC has indicated it’s more-than-ready and willing to reunify the island and the mainland should the Lai administration take any step towards formal separation, the new Taiwan leader continues fanning war flames in the Taiwan Strait, where China has unchallenged right of passage -and using legitimate exercises by China’s navy to request and receive more direct military aid from the USA.
The Biden administration has dedicated US $2 Billion in latest arms sales to Taiwan, including categories previously not provided, this latest package coming alongside much-larger disbursements for Ukraine and Israel.
The outcome of the November 5 US elections have implications for both Taiwan and Saint Lucia, but irrespective of who wins, Washington will continue to use Taiwan as the base for inviting deeper and larger US involvement in the Cross-Strait conflict and the South China Sea, with support from Japan, the Philippines and South Korea -and hopefully NATO.
As indicated during the tensions that escalated two years ago when then-outgoing US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, the US military doesn’t generally support White House and Pentagon positions that sound like America going to war with China over Taiwan.
The acceleration of tensions will continue benefitting the US military-industrial complex, but even while the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will not depend on external help to prevent secession of Taiwan island from the mainland, China also has allies near and far, big and small, willing to offer and provide assistance in case of any external intrusion.
Taiwan’s Caribbean policy today will have to undergo seas of change to alter the status quo of implications of uncertainty and suspense associated with its rapid decline of diplomatic allies in the past decade.But any change will be difficult at this late stage since Taiwan’s ties have only been traditionally sustained in a failed diplomatic numbers game with mainly small sovereign island and developing nations willing to pretend it is a nation when it’s still as far as can be from gaining UN recognition.
Over 180 UN member-states recognize the PRC, but among them are a powerful few (led by but notlimited to the US) that have traditionally supported Washington’s deliberate description of its Taiwan policy as one of ‘Strategic Ambiguity’ -even if only to try to explain the inexplicable and/or justify the unjustifiable.
Interestingly, earlier this week, ahead of the Taiwan official’s visit, an unattributed online ‘poll’ crudely asked invisible people whether they think Saint Lucia should stay with Taiwan or return to China.But even though useless as a national yardstick, this ‘poll’ allows for those following it to ask themselves some simple questions, like: Why is Taiwan neither a colony, nor an independent nation? And: What can Taiwan give Saint Lucia (or any of its remaining Caribbean allies) that China can’t give more and better.
By any yardstick, China has invested more in long-term permanent assistance to Saint Lucia than Taiwan has over a longer period, the George Odlum Stadium and the Millennium Heights Psychiatric Hospital still standing.
But the mysterious online poll can serve as yet another basis for the Saint Lucia-China Friendship Association (SLCFA) -which turns 20 years old on November 5- to undertake a public campaign to encourage Saint Lucians to weigh the balances of probability according to facts and not falsities.
The last time such a public survey was held the then-ruling SLP opted to ignore its findings, explaining it didn’t want to continue the on-and-off cycle of each new administration breaking ties with Taiwan or China like Saint Lucia is a tennis ball in a ping-pong match between Beijing and Taipei.
Fact is, nations don’t decide on diplomatic ties through polls, such decisions taken exclusively by the political directorate of the day, in Saint Lucia’s case the leadership of the Saint Lucia Government and the ruling Saint Lucia Labour Party (SLP).The final decision, based on what’s best for the nation and people, lies with the Prime Minister and Political Leader of the ruling party, through and with whom any such consideration must first be made.
It was the same with every Saint Lucia Prime Minister since 1983 when ties were established with Taiwan, broken in 1997 with recognition of the PRC and broken again in 2007 to return to Taipei.
Prime Ministers Dr Kenny D. Anthony and Sir John Compton grieved politically over how ties changed in 1997 and 2007, the former living to see the latter die after failing to recover from a shock illness suffered after he got the news of a pro-Taiwan Cabinet coup just hours before he was due to explain to his ministers why he wanted Saint Lucia to maintain ties with China.
Philip J. Pierre was a Cabinet Minister in 1997 and Deputy Prime Minister in 2012 when the then Labour administrations had to contend with making and breaking ties with China and Taiwan; and he too shared the view that Saint Lucia’s ties with other countries will always be based on what’s best for the island and its people at any given time.
It has never been the policy of the SLCFA to question any elected Government of Saint Lucia’s right to decide which nation to establish ties with.As such, during its 20th anniversary celebrations, the SLCFA can be expected to more loudly explain why it holds that ties with Taiwan are unsustainable, especially now that Taiwan’s Lai administration is leading Taiwan into a direction that can only result in the PRC, earlier than later, exercising China’s constitutional right to aggressively defend and preserve national unity and crush secessionist moves.
Taiwan’s leader today is leading Chinese in Taiwan along the same type of dangerous path that expired President Volodymyr Zelensky is leading Ukraine and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is leading Israel: paths towards endless war of untold cost that neither Saint Lucia, nor any other Caribbean ally, will be able to justifiably support.
Lucky for Taiwan, the very tolerant PRC continues to warn the Taipei administration to mend its wayward ways and stop trying to erase history while fanning the flames of a modern war that, unlucky for Saint Lucia, will not be in the nation’s best interests then or thereafter.
No one can accuse Prime Minister Pierre of not staying true to his promise to stay out of Taiwan’s internal affairs and no one can accuse him either of failing to deliver on his party’s election promises.Nor can anyone -after three years- ever claim Prime Minister Pierre sleeps on his watch at the wheel of the ship of state when it comes to understanding how the world turns and where Saint Lucia goes with it, especially at a time when developing nations and small island states have been having to stand taller and fight above their height to survive.
Taiwan is naturally worried about keeping its five CARICOM member-states’ support at a time when its once-great wall of support is rapidly crumbling.But, this being a peace-loving region whose governments champion keeping the Caribbean as a Zone of Peace, it will be near-impossible for any to justify condoning or supporting open invitations to war -whether from Taiwan, Ukraine or Israel.
Why? Because WAR is not in our DNA!
