By Earl Bousquet

Despite almost-1,000 US-led sanctions backed by the European Union (EU), the South American nation has survived repeated imperial onslaughts since the last presidential elections in 2018.
In a New Year address to the nation, President Nicolas Maduro promised more will be done with available resources -and better if sanctions are lifted.
He also promised deepening popular democracy through new elections to the National Assembly and national and community-based consultations on development projects to be undertaken during his third term.
Legislators also started their 2025-2026 term last weekend (January 4-5), early-enough to certify Maduro’s election victory as candidate of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) and invite him to officially take office on January 10.
Third New Term
Maduro was declared winner of the July 28, 2024 presidential elections by the National Electoral Commission (CNE) and the Supreme Court of Justice and will remain at the Miraflores presidential palace for a third time since succeeding PSUV Founder President Hugo Chavez in 2013.
His third new term also starts with Venezuela registering as Latin America’s fastest-growing economy in 2024, for a second consecutive year.
The United Nations (UN) Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) saying Venezuela’s GDP grew 6.2 percent.
Daniel Titelman, Director of ECLAC’s Economic Development Division, says the projected growth is based mainly on a 16% increase in Venezuela’s oil production -and the possibility that incoming US President Donald Trump could raise some related sanctions.
Media reports say Trump can ease the squeeze if Caracas agrees to receive thousands of Venezuelan migrants he intends to round-up, encamp and deport, with military support, as soon as possible after he takes office on January 20.
Maduro has been quoted as saying Venezuelans returning home will be welcomed and expectations and hopes are high in Caracas that Trump will fulfil, in full, Washington’s side of the bargain.
Commonalities and Contrasts
As Venezuela and the US approach their respective January presidential inaugurations, the contrasts and commonalities are blinding:
• Maduro will take office on Friday (January 10) despite all externally-backed attempts to prevent his re-election, while Trump will take office January 20, still in a quicksand of legal cases
• While Maduro takes his Oath of Office in Caracas on Friday, a US judge will sentence incoming President Donald Trump in his ‘hush money’ trial, in which a jury found him guilty as charged
• The judge on January 6 turned down a request by Trump’s lawyers for this case to be postponed, after ruling that “immunity does not extend to incoming presidents” and he’s said he plans to slap Trump on the wrist with a non-custodial sentence -which would make him the first US President to take office as a convicted felon.
Interesting Events
Meanwhile, the roads to the inaugurations in Caracas and Washington are already dotted with interesting events:
• January 5 saw the suspense-filled re-election of Trump-nominee Mike Johnson as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, despite many fellow Republicans having second thoughts about trusting him for the job a second time
• January 5 also saw Venezuela’s National Assembly start its 2025-2026 session, with Jorge Rodriguez re-elected as President
• On January 5, international press reports indicated exiled opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia had flown from Spain to Argentina, with plans to also visit the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Panama and Uruguay, his eyes ultimately set on entering Venezuela for January 10
• In immediate response, Venezuela’s Attorney General issuing a warrant for Gonzalez Urrutia’s arrest -with a US $100,000 bounty on his head- on charges temporarily shelved to facilitate his September asylum request
• Venezuela’s Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello assured citizens and overseas dignitaries on January 6 that the armed forces were being deployed to ensure no undue interference in Friday’s inauguration ceremony
• Also on January 6, the US observed four years (to the day) since supporters of defeated President Trump assaulted The Capitol in Washington in 2021, in a bid to prevent President Joe Biden from being certified winner
• At Capitol Hill on January 6, outgoing US Vice President Kamala Harris (like ex-Vice President Mike Pence four years earlier) presided over the final recount of votes cast in the election her party lost -and to certify Trump’s victory
• Also on January 6, Venezuela broke diplomatic relation with Paraguay, after that country’s president said he recognized Gonzalez Urrutia.
Venting Against Venezuela
Venezuela has officially pulled out of the Organization of American States (OAS), the US-led and Washington-based umbrella entity once described by legendary Cuban diplomat Raul Roa as “the US Ministry of Colonies”.
But the OAS continues to give vent to anti-Maduro sentiments, with the continued backing of the defanged ‘Lima Group’ of member-states opposed to Venezuela under Maduro and the PSUV.
OAS spokespersons are also insisting that ‘the only way’ forward for Venezuela is to allow migrants to leave its shores and return freely at will -supporting the Trump position.
Unpredictability
Trump’s patented unpredictability doesn’t allow for any certainty about what his foreign policy will be in the much-changed world he will have to contend with as President, including his threat to “take back” the Panama Canal.
But he will also have learned from the disappointing failure that ex-National Assembly president Juan Guaido turned out to be for Washington, after Trump crowned him as ‘president’ (but without a government), followed by ‘recognition’ by some 50 nations prodded by the US and EU.
Most of the Latin American states that expressed concerns about Maduro’s election have mended fences with Venezuela and will be represented at the inauguration, including Mexico and Spain.
New Era?
Unless Trump finds ways to twist Uncle Sam’s arms and change the US Constitution to abolish the two-term limit, this will be his last term -during which he’ll surely want to shape a legacy brighter than his first term and better than outgoing president Joe Biden’s.
Regaining US access to Venezuelan oil will be a large feather in Trump’s cap, even though Caracas may not agree to terms that will return to the past, when Caracas was subjected to undue US pressures following nationalization of some US oil assets by President Chavez.
Venezuela has been increasing oil production and exports since last year and badly needs the US sanctions lifted earliest in 2025.
Caracas and Washington, under Maduro and Trump, can find common ground in shared mutual interests, which would be a win-win situation for both nations.
The ‘transactional’ US president may also decide to negotiate an early deal for resuming the flow of Venezuelan oil to the USA, which Biden failed to achieve after playing cat-and-mouse with Caracas for something the US badly needs -and wants quickly.
Engineering the Future
Anything can happen, but whichever way the wind blows after January 10 and 20 in Caracas and Washington, respectively, Venezuela will continue engineering the new economy that’ll depend much-less on energy exports and much-more on 18 new ‘engines of growth’ developed during Maduro’s last term.
The armed forces have pledged their loyalty to the constitution and communities are being vested with more powers and better social mobility, especially through the many ‘Missions’ Chavez introduced to deliver the essentials for bettering citizens’ lives through ‘Socialism with Bolivarian Characteristics’.
Outranking…
Sanctions or not, Venezuela will continue to be home to the largest certified oil and gas reserves worldwide and 94% of Latin America’s energy reserves.
Leading Latin America’s GDP growth by 4.0 percent in 2023 and 6.2 percent in 2024, respectively, Venezuela outranks expectations for other Latin American states, like: Brazil (3.2% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025), Mexico (1.4% and 1.2%), Chile (2.3% and 2.2%), Colombia (1.8% and 2.6%) and Peru (3.1% and 2.7%).
On the other hand, Argentina leads the growth race downhill, under far-right President Javier Milei, with an expected contraction of minus-3.2%.
Access to Venezuelan oil and gas will help Trump build political capital and fill the vacuum in US and EU energy supplies that continue to deepen thanks to the Ukraine war and sabotage of cheaper gas deliveries from Russia through Germany and Ukraine, even as Russia continues selling oil and gas profitably on the world market.
Much depends on whether Trump is ready to dance with Caracas on the trade and diplomatic front, but while Maduro will be hoping for the best, Venezuela will also have to plan for the worse.
In any case, the bottom line is: The world is ready to live with Maduro and if President Trump wishes to bring new light to mutual benefit that’ll also respect the age-old diplomatic ties between Caracas and Washington, 2025 can see the start of a new era in US-Venezuela relations after January 20.